🔗 Share this article

China has sent its maritime law enforcement through the waters of the Senkaku islands and unmanned aerial vehicles near outlying Japan's territory as China ramps up strains following the Japanese prime minister’s comments regarding the island of Taiwan.

Rights Enforcement Activities

This past Sunday, the China's maritime patrol stated that its ships conducted a “rights enforcement patrol” through the territorial seas of the Senkaku, which are under the control of Tokyo but also claimed by Beijing.

“Chinese maritime patrol unit 1307 performed surveillance within the territorial waters of the Diaoyu islands. This was a lawful patrol operation conducted by the China coast guard to protect its sovereign claims,” officials declared.

Bilateral Tensions

Beijing and Tokyo have consistently clashed around the islands but the recent developments occur during an escalating political dispute after the Japan's leader, the Japanese official, addressed lawmakers that if China attack democratically ruled Taiwan it could trigger a military response from Tokyo.

That provoked a furious reaction from Beijing, which has signalled it expects a retraction from Takaichi.

Island's Stance

China claims the island as its own territory and intends to annex it under what it terms “unification”. It has left open the military option. The island's administration and people overwhelmingly reject the prospect of Chinese rule – choosing to preserve the current situation without explicitly declaring themselves independent, but pledging to protect their sovereignty if required.

An military assault by Beijing would risk escalating into a regional or global conflict, possibly drawing in the US and other allies including Tokyo, which has land just 110km (68 miles) from the island.

Military Activity

In Taiwan, the defence ministry said on Sunday morning that it had observed three dozen PLA planes, multiple naval vessels and one government vessel, which was probably the coast guard, operating around the territory over the previous day.

Official charts released showed up to multiple UAVs flying between the island and the Japanese islands off its northeastern shoreline, seeming to travel particularly close to Yonaguni. Chinese military transits there are not rare, but uncommon, and Chinese military activity in the island's ADIZ generally has been minimal in the past month.

Late on Saturday, the ministry said China had been conducting another “combined military exercise” to “test our defensive capabilities”. It noted Taiwan had sent its own aircraft and ships to monitor the situation. The island reports such Chinese patrols a couple of times a month as part of what Taipei says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.

Diplomatic Pressure

Japan has been facing mounting pressure from Beijing since Takaichi made her comments, with Beijing's diplomatic representative in Osaka prompting a formal protest from Japan by commenting that “the dirty head that sticks itself out must be cut off”.

China then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first occasion since 2023, and Beijing's military authorities stated that any Tokyo's involvement would be doomed to fail.

Travel and Education Advisory

Late last week, China advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, leading Japan to request China to take “suitable actions”, though it provided no details.

Three Chinese airlines announced this weekend that tickets to Japan could be cancelled without penalty.

In another escalation, Beijing's administration on the weekend urged its citizens to “carefully reconsider” studying in Japan, citing what it characterized as an unstable security environment.

While the advice does not amount to a ban, a significant decrease in the number of Chinese students could have a negative impact on academic institutions in Japan. A historic high of over 336,000 international students were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to education statistics. They featured over 123,000 learners from China – by far the single biggest group.

Official Commentary

Earlier this weekend, a Chinese state media editorial charged the Japanese official with performing a diplomatic maneuver that was “both reckless and fundamentally flawed”.

“A conflict between Japan and China would not be a small-scale encounter; it would probably involve other nations, including the United States, and could rapidly escalate to a major confrontation with unimaginable consequences.”

Strategic Positions

The administration in Taipei says only its people can decide its future. Officials in Tokyo have previously avoided publicly mentioning Taiwan when addressing potential conflicts, maintaining a “strategic ambiguity” also favoured by Japan's primary defense partner, the US.

However, China’s ruling Communist party says the incorporation of the island with the People’s Republic of China is “inevitable”, and casts any opposition to it as escalatory. As it advances toward potential armed takeover, China has also been escalating its non-military activity and its rhetoric towards the island.