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Usually, the National Football League's Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward formula. It frequently acts as a form of apology. We regret we got wrong your squad in our pre-campaign projections.

On paper, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the largest improvement wins the prize. In reality, it sparks an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring superior coaching or just the greatest shock.

But this year's field is profoundly unique. The list of nominees is unusually strong. It has been the year of comebacks. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning division winners declining and recent strugglers rising collectively. Under an ordinary year, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. But in this turbulent and fun year, he's facing multiple other exceptional coaches.

This is how the projected ballot should look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love QBs. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you fix a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the chance to display his otherworldly talent. From midseason onward, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent dominance. With Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, far less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the system instead of freelancing. It is an attack built solely in Johnson's vision: a physical ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that springs wide receiver receivers all over the field. Williams has taken advantage. And when easy reads haven't been available, he's been able to create magic out of nothing.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a defined offensive vision. Almost each decision – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer still for a coach who entered the organization with the immense pressure he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a offensive dork but the kind of leader that can breathe new life into an franchise.

In a typical year, he would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet the current is not a typical campaign!

The area where Johnson's candidacy runs a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears currently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be two wins worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is established for sustained winning. But Johnson comes up short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has orchestrated a swift resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now sits at number five in the league in EPA per play.

What's more notably, he has nailed the leadership stuff, which wasn't a certainty after his initial press conference introduction and some of his offseason moves.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching blend of new ideas and experience, Coen trusted newbies. From the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That type of approach is exciting on paper, but frequently fails in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a new job on the fly. Yet Coen has managed to bring the entire group and all elements together.

Following an early strong start, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the track. A midseason setback had the team stumbling once more. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. Coen didn't. Instead, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped chasing explosive answers and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach recentered the attack around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The results are evident. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the standings because he inherited a talented team, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year case has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a new quarterback and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have ended the season in October. Instead, it defined it. Through the middle point of the year, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has regressed after that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the schedule, putting him just one place ahead of peers.

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